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The Chances of an Upset in the FA Cup Semi-finals

For neutral fans, the FA Cup has been a pretty good one this season. We got to see some proper upsets, with the likes of Grimsby Town and Stevenage pulling out stirring performances against higher-ranked opposition.

We also got to see some heavyweight clashes, with the likes of Manchester City facing off against Arsenal and Chelsea in the earlier rounds. There were also some of the best individual games you’ll see this year, including the thriller that was Wrexham 3-3 Sheffield United. 

However, we are now approaching the Semi-Finals, which has thrown up a very interesting mix of contenders. In the first tie, you have Manchester City against Sheffield United, pitting the Premier League champions against a tough EFL Championship side.

And in the second, you have 12-time winners Manchester United, who will be hoping to make it to the Final for the 21st time, against Brighton, one of the most exciting up-and-coming teams in the country. 

All-Manchester Final is predicted 

It’s interesting, but can there be an upset? There is a lot of talk about seeing an all-Manchester Final. Certainly, the from brands like William Hill point to the City and United winning their ties respectively. However, there have already been upsets this year, and there are factors that might suggest another one or two are possible. 

Most notably, there is the clash between Brighton and United. Would it even be considered an upset if Brighton were to win? Perhaps if you were looking at it through a historical lens. Brighton have reached one FA Cup Final (1983) in their history, where they were (coincidentally) beaten by Ron Atkinson’s Manchester United.

However, while United have reached no fewer than 11 FA Cup Finals since that time, the gulf in class between the two sides is certainly a small one this season.

United lead Brighton by a few points in the Premier League, and the Seagulls have already beaten the Red Devils this season. If Brighton win, it will only be a minor shock – a very minor one. 

Man City will, of course, be huge favourites to win against a team placed in the division below. Sheffield United are a wonderful side, full of goals and guile. Moreover, it looks like the Blades will be in the Premier League next season, either via automatic promotion or the playoffs.

Still, it’s a tall order for Sheffield United, and it might even be the case that the sense of occasion at Wembley Stadium overwhelms an inexperienced side. 

European engagements could make an impact

But there is also some hope for both Brighton and Sheffield United in the form of the engagements of the Manchester clubs before the FA Cup Semi-final weekend (22nd-23rd April).

Three days before meeting Sheffield United, City will be playing against Bayern Munich in Germany in the second leg of their Champions League Quarter-final. Similarly, United will be playing against Sevilla in Spain three days before their game with Brighton on the 23rd April. 

The fact that both Manchester clubs are playing away in Europe is a big plus for both the underdogs. It can be difficult for teams – even those with big squads like City and United – to travel across the continent to play two crunch games in a few days, and we have seen plenty of strange results over the years directly after teams have finished playing midweek European competitions.

What’s more, you have to wonder whether City boss Pep Guardiola, in particular, will be prioritising the Champions League over the FA Cup. It remains to be seen. 

As mentioned, this has been a good FA Cup tournament, so whether you enjoy what happens next depends on your perspective.

Maybe you want to see the two Manchester clubs to meet in a heavyweight grudge match? Or maybe you want to see Brighton reach a first FA Cup Final in 40 years? Or perhaps you want to see Sheffield United do the impossible? Anything could happen.