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Are The Play-offs Fair?

The play-offs for the English divisions began in the 1986/87 season where the team in the First Division (now known as the Premier League) who finished just above the relegation zone faced three sides from Second Division (known now as the Championship) and whoever won the final would then play their football in the highest level of English football, with the losing side playing in the lower league. Charlton were the first team to gain promotion this way by beating Leeds.

The format was discontinued for the following season, changing it to the system which is still played today where the four teams below the automatic places face each other in a play-off system where the winner will be promoted to the division above.

The excitement and wealth it brings to the club that wins is incredible, but is it fair? Why should the team who finished third (or forth for League two) have to go through the play-off system and potentially face a sixth (or seventh) placed team? The current prize money for the team who wins the Play-offs in the Championship is an estimated £60 million pounds in television rights and prize money. Why should the team who finishes sixth be given that amount?

With the format played for promotion in England, why doesn’t the Premier league do the same system for qualifiers of the Champions League where second to ninth play each other and whoever wins, gets the elusive Champions League positions? If the system is only done for excitement and a way of having a smaller club join one of the best leagues in the World then personally, I don’t see how it’s a fair way of deciding who goes up.
Now to look at what teams actually won the play-offs in the three divisions. I have done it from the 2004/05 season:

04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13
Champ 6th 3rd 3rd 3rd 5th 6th 3rd 3rd 5th
Lge 1 5th 5th 3rd 3rd 6th 3rd 4th 4th 4th
Lge 2 4th 5th 6th 4th 5th 7th 6th 7th 7th

Championship average number: 3rd
League one average number: 3rd/4th
League two average number: 7th

As you can clearly see the top team in the Championship and League One are usually the ones to be promoted, whereas in League Two, the team who finishes in the final play-off place usually win promotion. The teams in League Two are usually of the same quality and play the same style of football which can be viewed as a lottery when the play-off starts and perhaps the team who just qualify it carry the momentum and confidence and performs at a better level than the teams above. Fourth place in League two have only been promoted twice in nine years, with the last time being over five seasons ago. This could be due to the fact that not qualifying in the automatic place leaves them fatigued and lacking in confidence.

Finishing in sixth place for the Championship and League One in the past nine season hasn’t been enough to see promotion for the said clubs, with only two teams from the Championship being promoted and just the once for League One which shows that usually, the best teams comes out on top.

Now to show what position of the other side the eventual winners had to face were:
04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13
Champ 5th 5th 4th 4th 3rd 4th 5th 5th 3rd
Lge 1 4th 6th 5th 5th 5th 5th 3rd 3rd 3rd
Lge 2 6th 4th 7th 5th 7th 5th 7th 6th 6th

Championship average number: 5th
League one average number: 5th
League two average number: 6th/7th

As you can agree, there is quite a difference in comparision to the above stats. It’s the bottom half of the four which end up playing in the final. Based on the results, the only reason that can be given is that the teams they face have the momentum but simply don’t have the quality in the final to ‘finish the job’. The Championship only had two 3rd place teams play in the final and at both times lost to the team which finished 5th. League one have had a 3rd placed team the last three seasons in a row to then be beaten by the team who finished 4th. League two is even worse as only three teams in total who have finished 4th then continue to the final, with two of them being eventual winners and one losing to 5th place.

Third place teams from the Championship and League One are usually the team to be promoted, but should they have a better chance of surviving the higher division? Let’s see:

05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13
Prem 6th/9th 3rd/20th 3rd/20th 3rd/17th 5th/18th 6th/19th 3rd/11th 3rd/10th
Champ 5th/19th 5th/20th 3rd/19th 3rd/14th 6th/20th 3rd/9th 4th/18th 4th/19th
Lge 1 4th/1st 5th/17th 6th/16th 4th/18th 5th/21st 7th/21st 6th/6th 7th/13th

The findings are from the 2005/2006 season.

The results from the Premier League appear to be random. It seems it doesn’t matter what the position was the previous season, with three teams who finished below 3rd, one finished a very respectable 9th position and with the other two teams: relegation. The teams who finished third are split, two finishing 20th and the other two teams finishing mid-table. In the last two seasons, both teams finished 3rd and finished 11th and 10th respectably. It could be that they have learnt from the teams in the past and evolved in knowing how to survive in the Premier League.

In the Championship, the team who gained promotion never got relegated. This could be because the quality between League one and the Championship isn’t a massive difference. It should also be noted that not a single team reached the Championship play-offs in their first season with the highest being 9th.
In League one, only one team has been relegated when gaining promotion, one team has reached the play-offs and surprisingly, one team actually won the League in the 2005/2006 season. With the other teams ending their first season at the bottom half of the table.

In conclusion, if you finished 3rd in the Championship and League One, you will most likely then push on for promotion. However, with League two, the team who finishes 7th ends up winning it. As you’re most likely to win the Play-offs when finished highest of the four teams involved in the two divisions you can put forward a case that a play-off system is unfair, but for League Two it shows that just about any team can win it, and that’s what we love about football.